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NFL Week 16 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attackin hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills! Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or oveunders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model. All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.WEEK 16 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerAll data presented is as of Friday morning.You can track all NFL line movement onBetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the weekCincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston TexansTo some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnaticoach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texansto win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in gamesand have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts |Start 'em, sit 'emNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the weekPittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis ColtsFull disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven'tscored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22and haveinched theirway to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for moralebut also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contestsand won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s oveunder is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.WEEK 16 NFLDFS: Best stacks| Best values |Lineup BuilderNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Oveunder pick of the weekCardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks. But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring outputand identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs(33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar oveunder to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!
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Vikings-Saints Christmas Betting Preview: Odds, trends, pick

It’s Christmas, a good time to reflect on our blessings. One of those blessings -- for football fans and bettors alike -- is a rare four consecutive days of NFL action, starting with a Christmas Day matinee. Kicking off this Christmas weekend of pigskin bliss, the Saints (10-4) host the Vikings (6-8) at the Superdome. The Saints are listed as -7 favorites (-310 ML), and the oveunder is set at 51 total points. New Orleans felt blessed last weekwhen veteran leader and future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Drew Brees returned from a four-week absence after suffering 11 broken ribs and a punctured lung. Brees struggled early against the Chiefsbut nearly mounted a second-half comeback against the defending Super Bowl champions, ultimately falling short 32-29. Meanwhile, the Vikings are likely just thankful their season is almost mercifully overand that they have Offensive Player of the Year candidate Dalvin Cook on their side. WEEK 16 PICKS ADVICE: Pick 'em/Surivor PoolsWe at BetQL always want to help you achieve betting success, which is why we’ve offered a comprehensive Thursday Night Football betting preview and predictions here at Sporting News every week of the season. We can tell you right now that for this Friday Afternoon Football game, we are all-in on the OVER of 51 points, with our BetQL Best Bet Model listing it as a full five-star bet. Keep reading to reveal our detailed preview for this Christmas contest, as well as our full predictions against the spread and on the moneyline.Vikings OutlookThe Vikings have experienced a couple different down stretches this season, losing five of their first six games and now three of their past five. They have also experienced some highs, like beating the Packers, Bears, and Texans, but they have also hit some pretty murky points.Of course, in the spirit of the holiday season, it’s important to look at the bright side of things. Justin Jefferson has been the best rookie wide receiver in the 2020 Draft classand will almost assuredly receive some votes for Rookie of the Year. Fellow wideout Adam Thielen has experienced a bounce-back seasonand seems to have made the end zone his second home. Perhaps most noteworthy, running back Dalvin Cook has not only been healthy the majority of this season, he’s also dominated. Cook should be a frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year honors.That said, the Vikings have exhibited far more weaknesses than strengths during their 2020 campaign. They have struggled to execute defensively in big games, allowing an average of 29.5 points to the six teams they have played that are currently in playoff positions. Losing defensive end Danielle Hunter, linebacker Anthony Barr, and cornerback Mike Hughes to season-ending injuries was a brutal triple-punch to the gut. Now LB Erik Kendricks, arguably the leader of this defensive unit, has missed three consecutive games with a calf injury, and cornerback Cameron Dantzler is "questionable" with a nagging foot ailment.The other major issue Mike Zimmer’s squad has faced has been its ability to protect quarterback Kirk Cousins. The veteran has been sacked 34 timeson an astounding 7.2 percent of his pass attempts. Constant pressure has clearly affected his decision-making, as he has regularly forced passes and consequently ranks second in interceptions with 13. He’s also fumbled away the football five times on the season.If Cousins had better protection, there’s no telling what kind of numbers he would have put up (and how many wins Minnesota would have). He has posted 3,569 passing yards and 29 TDs, but he has been haunted by sacks and QB hits all year. In Minnesota’s eight losses, he has been sacked a total of 22 times and thrown 11 picks. Tampa got to him six times two weeks ago, and Chicago registered three sacks and a pick last week. This dude is beat up, and he now faces a Saints team that ranks sixth in the NFL with 40 sacksand just took reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes down four times last week.CHRISTMAS DFS: DK Showdown lineup | FD Single-game lineupSaints OutlookLike Minnesota, the Saints need a win to break their two-game losing streak, but unlike Minnesota, who barely have any chance of making the playoffs, New Orleans clinched a postseason berth weeks ago. The Saints can cement their NFC South title this weekend with a win against the Vikingsor with a Buccaneers loss to the Lions.With Drew Brees one more week into healing his 11 rib fractures and punctured lung (which he sustained in Week 10 against San Francisco), it’s a good bet that New Orleans will punch its own ticket to the division championship and rest easy on the long holiday weekend. Who Dat Nation would then have their sights on a bye in the first week of the playoffs.As good as their record suggests they are, the Saints have been largely carried by their dynamic defense in the second half of this season. Backup QB/TE/RB extraordinaire Taysom Hill led New Orleans to three wins after the Brees injury, but the pass game basically took a backseat on the priority list. In Week 14, Hill got outdueled at his own RPO game by mobile rookie QB Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. In Week 15, Brees and his wide receiver corps struggled to find connections in the first half.Coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael should have their team more prepared to go against the injury-ravaged Vikings. Minnesota hovers around the bottom-third in the NFL in points allowed, total yards surrendered, rushing yards allowed, and all passing categories.Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s unit should continue its torrid attack of the football, and its front seven should eat well this Christmas. The Saints rank sixth in the league in sacks with 40and coincidentally also rank sixth in the league in points allowed. They give up the third-fewest total yards and have the fifth-most takeaways. No team has allowed fewer rushing TDs.Veteran defensive end Trey Hendrickson has emerged as a star this season, tied for second in the NFL with 12.5 sacks. Cameron Jordan, who was just named to the Pro Bowl, has 6.5 sacks of his own. The tandem has combined for 22 tackles for loss and 39 QB hits. They lead the line, while Demario Davis (106 tackles/65 solo/4 sacks/10 TFL/10 QB hits) runs the linebackers. The addition of MalcolmJenkins and re-signing ofJanoris Jenkins to the secondary has boded well for everybody, lessening the load for Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore.The Saints are an elite team designed for a Super Bowl run, so realistically the Vikings are just a blip on their radar. Expect Payton and his coaching staff to treat this as a playoff gameand have a jolly Christmas filled with a plethora of points.WEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerPrediction The Vikings have been surprisingly good at third-down and red-zone defense this season, but they appear too banged up to hold a candle to this Saints offense in a key game in New Orleans. I think this one might be over by halftime, and I’m all in on the Saints’ moneyline (-310) and the spread (-7).The BetQL Best Bet Model agrees, putting two stars on the spread and four stars on the moneyline. The Model also loves the OVER in this one, projecting the total to be closer to 54 points than the listed number of 51. As far as first-half bets go, the Model puts two stars on the Saints -4 at halftime and another two stars on the OVER at the break (26). It’s also all over the first-half moneyline, putting a four-star confidence rating on New Orleans -245. I’ll take the Saints to clinch their division on Christmas, winning big 33-26.You can find all updated lines, odds, spreads, and NFL picks at BetQL!
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Vikings-Saints Christmas Betting Preview: Odds, trends, pick

It’s Christmas, a good time to reflect on our blessings. One of those blessings -- for football fans and bettors alike -- is a rare four consecutive days of NFL action, starting with a Christmas Day matinee. Kicking off this Christmas weekend of pigskin bliss, the Saints (10-4) host the Vikings (6-8) at the Superdome. The Saints are listed as -7 favorites (-310 ML), and the oveunder is set at 51 total points. New Orleans felt blessed last weekwhen veteran leader and future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Drew Brees returned from a four-week absence after suffering 11 broken ribs and a punctured lung. Brees struggled early against the Chiefsbut nearly mounted a second-half comeback against the defending Super Bowl champions, ultimately falling short 32-29. Meanwhile, the Vikings are likely just thankful their season is almost mercifully overand that they have Offensive Player of the Year candidate Dalvin Cook on their side. WEEK 16 PICKS ADVICE: Pick 'em/Surivor PoolsWe at BetQL always want to help you achieve betting success, which is why we’ve offered a comprehensive Thursday Night Football betting preview and predictions here at Sporting News every week of the season. We can tell you right now that for this Friday Afternoon Football game, we are all-in on the OVER of 51 points, with our BetQL Best Bet Model listing it as a full five-star bet. Keep reading to reveal our detailed preview for this Christmas contest, as well as our full predictions against the spread and on the moneyline.Vikings OutlookThe Vikings have experienced a couple different down stretches this season, losing five of their first six games and now three of their past five. They have also experienced some highs, like beating the Packers, Bears, and Texans, but they have also hit some pretty murky points.Of course, in the spirit of the holiday season, it’s important to look at the bright side of things. Justin Jefferson has been the best rookie wide receiver in the 2020 Draft classand will almost assuredly receive some votes for Rookie of the Year. Fellow wideout Adam Thielen has experienced a bounce-back seasonand seems to have made the end zone his second home. Perhaps most noteworthy, running back Dalvin Cook has not only been healthy the majority of this season, he’s also dominated. Cook should be a frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year honors.That said, the Vikings have exhibited far more weaknesses than strengths during their 2020 campaign. They have struggled to execute defensively in big games, allowing an average of 29.5 points to the six teams they have played that are currently in playoff positions. Losing defensive end Danielle Hunter, linebacker Anthony Barr, and cornerback Mike Hughes to season-ending injuries was a brutal triple-punch to the gut. Now LB Erik Kendricks, arguably the leader of this defensive unit, has missed three consecutive games with a calf injury, and cornerback Cameron Dantzler is "questionable" with a nagging foot ailment.The other major issue Mike Zimmer’s squad has faced has been its ability to protect quarterback Kirk Cousins. The veteran has been sacked 34 timeson an astounding 7.2 percent of his pass attempts. Constant pressure has clearly affected his decision-making, as he has regularly forced passes and consequently ranks second in interceptions with 13. He’s also fumbled away the football five times on the season.If Cousins had better protection, there’s no telling what kind of numbers he would have put up (and how many wins Minnesota would have). He has posted 3,569 passing yards and 29 TDs, but he has been haunted by sacks and QB hits all year. In Minnesota’s eight losses, he has been sacked a total of 22 times and thrown 11 picks. Tampa got to him six times two weeks ago, and Chicago registered three sacks and a pick last week. This dude is beat up, and he now faces a Saints team that ranks sixth in the NFL with 40 sacksand just took reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes down four times last week.CHRISTMAS DFS: DK Showdown lineup | FD Single-game lineupSaints OutlookLike Minnesota, the Saints need a win to break their two-game losing streak, but unlike Minnesota, who barely have any chance of making the playoffs, New Orleans clinched a postseason berth weeks ago. The Saints can cement their NFC South title this weekend with a win against the Vikingsor with a Buccaneers loss to the Lions.With Drew Brees one more week into healing his 11 rib fractures and punctured lung (which he sustained in Week 10 against San Francisco), it’s a good bet that New Orleans will punch its own ticket to the division championship and rest easy on the long holiday weekend. Who Dat Nation would then have their sights on a bye in the first week of the playoffs.As good as their record suggests they are, the Saints have been largely carried by their dynamic defense in the second half of this season. Backup QB/TE/RB extraordinaire Taysom Hill led New Orleans to three wins after the Brees injury, but the pass game basically took a backseat on the priority list. In Week 14, Hill got outdueled at his own RPO game by mobile rookie QB Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. In Week 15, Brees and his wide receiver corps struggled to find connections in the first half.Coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael should have their team more prepared to go against the injury-ravaged Vikings. Minnesota hovers around the bottom-third in the NFL in points allowed, total yards surrendered, rushing yards allowed, and all passing categories.Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s unit should continue its torrid attack of the football, and its front seven should eat well this Christmas. The Saints rank sixth in the league in sacks with 40and coincidentally also rank sixth in the league in points allowed. They give up the third-fewest total yards and have the fifth-most takeaways. No team has allowed fewer rushing TDs.Veteran defensive end Trey Hendrickson has emerged as a star this season, tied for second in the NFL with 12.5 sacks. Cameron Jordan, who was just named to the Pro Bowl, has 6.5 sacks of his own. The tandem has combined for 22 tackles for loss and 39 QB hits. They lead the line, while Demario Davis (106 tackles/65 solo/4 sacks/10 TFL/10 QB hits) runs the linebackers. The addition of MalcolmJenkins and re-signing ofJanoris Jenkins to the secondary has boded well for everybody, lessening the load for Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore.The Saints are an elite team designed for a Super Bowl run, so realistically the Vikings are just a blip on their radar. Expect Payton and his coaching staff to treat this as a playoff gameand have a jolly Christmas filled with a plethora of points.WEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerPrediction The Vikings have been surprisingly good at third-down and red-zone defense this season, but they appear too banged up to hold a candle to this Saints offense in a key game in New Orleans. I think this one might be over by halftime, and I’m all in on the Saints’ moneyline (-310) and the spread (-7).The BetQL Best Bet Model agrees, putting two stars on the spread and four stars on the moneyline. The Model also loves the OVER in this one, projecting the total to be closer to 54 points than the listed number of 51. As far as first-half bets go, the Model puts two stars on the Saints -4 at halftime and another two stars on the OVER at the break (26). It’s also all over the first-half moneyline, putting a four-star confidence rating on New Orleans -245. I’ll take the Saints to clinch their division on Christmas, winning big 33-26.You can find all updated lines, odds, spreads, and NFL picks at BetQL!
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NFL Week 16 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attackin hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills! Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or oveunders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model. All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.WEEK 16 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerAll data presented is as of Friday morning.You can track all NFL line movement onBetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the weekCincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston TexansTo some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnaticoach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texansto win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in gamesand have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts |Start 'em, sit 'emNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the weekPittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis ColtsFull disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven'tscored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22and haveinched theirway to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for moralebut also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contestsand won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s oveunder is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.WEEK 16 NFLDFS: Best stacks| Best values |Lineup BuilderNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Oveunder pick of the weekCardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks. But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring outputand identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs(33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar oveunder to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!
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Vikings-Saints Christmas Betting Preview: Odds, trends, pick

It’s Christmas, a good time to reflect on our blessings. One of those blessings -- for football fans and bettors alike -- is a rare four consecutive days of NFL action, starting with a Christmas Day matinee. Kicking off this Christmas weekend of pigskin bliss, the Saints (10-4) host the Vikings (6-8) at the Superdome. The Saints are listed as -7 favorites (-310 ML), and the oveunder is set at 51 total points. New Orleans felt blessed last weekwhen veteran leader and future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Drew Brees returned from a four-week absence after suffering 11 broken ribs and a punctured lung. Brees struggled early against the Chiefsbut nearly mounted a second-half comeback against the defending Super Bowl champions, ultimately falling short 32-29. Meanwhile, the Vikings are likely just thankful their season is almost mercifully overand that they have Offensive Player of the Year candidate Dalvin Cook on their side. WEEK 16 PICKS ADVICE: Pick 'em/Surivor PoolsWe at BetQL always want to help you achieve betting success, which is why we’ve offered a comprehensive Thursday Night Football betting preview and predictions here at Sporting News every week of the season. We can tell you right now that for this Friday Afternoon Football game, we are all-in on the OVER of 51 points, with our BetQL Best Bet Model listing it as a full five-star bet. Keep reading to reveal our detailed preview for this Christmas contest, as well as our full predictions against the spread and on the moneyline.Vikings OutlookThe Vikings have experienced a couple different down stretches this season, losing five of their first six games and now three of their past five. They have also experienced some highs, like beating the Packers, Bears, and Texans, but they have also hit some pretty murky points.Of course, in the spirit of the holiday season, it’s important to look at the bright side of things. Justin Jefferson has been the best rookie wide receiver in the 2020 Draft classand will almost assuredly receive some votes for Rookie of the Year. Fellow wideout Adam Thielen has experienced a bounce-back seasonand seems to have made the end zone his second home. Perhaps most noteworthy, running back Dalvin Cook has not only been healthy the majority of this season, he’s also dominated. Cook should be a frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year honors.That said, the Vikings have exhibited far more weaknesses than strengths during their 2020 campaign. They have struggled to execute defensively in big games, allowing an average of 29.5 points to the six teams they have played that are currently in playoff positions. Losing defensive end Danielle Hunter, linebacker Anthony Barr, and cornerback Mike Hughes to season-ending injuries was a brutal triple-punch to the gut. Now LB Erik Kendricks, arguably the leader of this defensive unit, has missed three consecutive games with a calf injury, and cornerback Cameron Dantzler is "questionable" with a nagging foot ailment.The other major issue Mike Zimmer’s squad has faced has been its ability to protect quarterback Kirk Cousins. The veteran has been sacked 34 timeson an astounding 7.2 percent of his pass attempts. Constant pressure has clearly affected his decision-making, as he has regularly forced passes and consequently ranks second in interceptions with 13. He’s also fumbled away the football five times on the season.If Cousins had better protection, there’s no telling what kind of numbers he would have put up (and how many wins Minnesota would have). He has posted 3,569 passing yards and 29 TDs, but he has been haunted by sacks and QB hits all year. In Minnesota’s eight losses, he has been sacked a total of 22 times and thrown 11 picks. Tampa got to him six times two weeks ago, and Chicago registered three sacks and a pick last week. This dude is beat up, and he now faces a Saints team that ranks sixth in the NFL with 40 sacksand just took reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes down four times last week.CHRISTMAS DFS: DK Showdown lineup | FD Single-game lineupSaints OutlookLike Minnesota, the Saints need a win to break their two-game losing streak, but unlike Minnesota, who barely have any chance of making the playoffs, New Orleans clinched a postseason berth weeks ago. The Saints can cement their NFC South title this weekend with a win against the Vikingsor with a Buccaneers loss to the Lions.With Drew Brees one more week into healing his 11 rib fractures and punctured lung (which he sustained in Week 10 against San Francisco), it’s a good bet that New Orleans will punch its own ticket to the division championship and rest easy on the long holiday weekend. Who Dat Nation would then have their sights on a bye in the first week of the playoffs.As good as their record suggests they are, the Saints have been largely carried by their dynamic defense in the second half of this season. Backup QB/TE/RB extraordinaire Taysom Hill led New Orleans to three wins after the Brees injury, but the pass game basically took a backseat on the priority list. In Week 14, Hill got outdueled at his own RPO game by mobile rookie QB Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. In Week 15, Brees and his wide receiver corps struggled to find connections in the first half.Coach Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael should have their team more prepared to go against the injury-ravaged Vikings. Minnesota hovers around the bottom-third in the NFL in points allowed, total yards surrendered, rushing yards allowed, and all passing categories.Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s unit should continue its torrid attack of the football, and its front seven should eat well this Christmas. The Saints rank sixth in the league in sacks with 40and coincidentally also rank sixth in the league in points allowed. They give up the third-fewest total yards and have the fifth-most takeaways. No team has allowed fewer rushing TDs.Veteran defensive end Trey Hendrickson has emerged as a star this season, tied for second in the NFL with 12.5 sacks. Cameron Jordan, who was just named to the Pro Bowl, has 6.5 sacks of his own. The tandem has combined for 22 tackles for loss and 39 QB hits. They lead the line, while Demario Davis (106 tackles/65 solo/4 sacks/10 TFL/10 QB hits) runs the linebackers. The addition of MalcolmJenkins and re-signing ofJanoris Jenkins to the secondary has boded well for everybody, lessening the load for Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore.The Saints are an elite team designed for a Super Bowl run, so realistically the Vikings are just a blip on their radar. Expect Payton and his coaching staff to treat this as a playoff gameand have a jolly Christmas filled with a plethora of points.WEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerPrediction The Vikings have been surprisingly good at third-down and red-zone defense this season, but they appear too banged up to hold a candle to this Saints offense in a key game in New Orleans. I think this one might be over by halftime, and I’m all in on the Saints’ moneyline (-310) and the spread (-7).The BetQL Best Bet Model agrees, putting two stars on the spread and four stars on the moneyline. The Model also loves the OVER in this one, projecting the total to be closer to 54 points than the listed number of 51. As far as first-half bets go, the Model puts two stars on the Saints -4 at halftime and another two stars on the OVER at the break (26). It’s also all over the first-half moneyline, putting a four-star confidence rating on New Orleans -245. I’ll take the Saints to clinch their division on Christmas, winning big 33-26.You can find all updated lines, odds, spreads, and NFL picks at BetQL!
submitted by hokkuvn to NBCSport [link] [comments]

NFL Week 16 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attackin hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills! Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or oveunders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model. All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.WEEK 16 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerAll data presented is as of Friday morning.You can track all NFL line movement onBetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the weekCincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston TexansTo some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnaticoach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texansto win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in gamesand have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts |Start 'em, sit 'emNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the weekPittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis ColtsFull disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven'tscored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22and haveinched theirway to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for moralebut also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contestsand won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s oveunder is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.WEEK 16 NFLDFS: Best stacks| Best values |Lineup BuilderNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Oveunder pick of the weekCardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks. But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring outputand identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs(33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar oveunder to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!
submitted by hokkuvn to StreamableSports [link] [comments]

NFL Week 16 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

With just two weeks remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, just about every game in Week 16 contains some degree of playoff implication. Keen bettors will be looking for any edge to attackin hopes of winning big and paying off those pesky post-holiday bills! Every week, this column provides a detailed breakdown of our favorite bets, weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL. This compilation serves as a mere sneak preview of all that BetQL offers, whether you prefer betting against the spread, moneylines, or oveunders. Check us out now to reveal our full betting predictions for every game of Week 16, including projections and best bet ratings from our NFL Best Bet Model. All data presented is as of Friday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.WEEK 16 FANTASY PPR RANKINGS:Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | KickerAll data presented is as of Friday morning.You can track all NFL line movement onBetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.NFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the weekCincinnati Bengals (+9) at Houston TexansTo some, picking the 3-10-1 Bengals in a short week after they upset the 11-2 Steelers might seem like the equivalent of chasing points in fantasy football. But anyone who watched that Monday Night Football game knows that Pittsburgh didn’t just choke last week -- the Bengals also fought for that win. What a breath of fresh air that must have been for Cincinnaticoach Zac Taylor, who has witnessed his team suffer countless setbacks during their 2020 campaign.Third-string QB Ryan Finley showed remarkable poise against a strong Pittsburgh defense, and now he draws one of the most vulnerable secondaries in the NFL in Houston. The Texans rank 31st in total yards allowed (402.6 per game) and have given up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns per game over the past three weeks. They also serve as the second-worst rushing defense this season, surrendering 150.5 yards per game on the ground.The Texans are currently on a three-game losing streak, during which they have been outscored 89-47. Even still, with Deshaun Watson under center, we at BetQL expect the Texansto win this game, but we have no reason to think they will win it by 10 points. Cincinnati’s defense showed last week that it shouldn’t be counted out based on its record, and Finley can compete when given the chance and fully prepped for the start.We would feel much more confident in this pick if wide receiver Tyler Boyd clears concussion protocol, but we think the Bengals cover the +9 even if they just have veteran A.J. Green and rookie Tee Higgins out wide. They should also be able to open up the field a bit if veteran back Gio Bernard can pick up where he left off last week (97 total yards, two touchdowns).The BetQL Best Bet Model features this as one of its top underdog picks against the spread this week, listing it with a full five-star confidence rating. Plain and simple, the Bengals stay in gamesand have covered in eight of their 14 games against the spread. Meanwhile, Houston ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the spread this season (5-9), and has gone just 2-4 ATS at home. Bet the undies, and then tell everyone at your Zoom Year’s Eve Party that you won money wagering on Ryan Finley and the Bengals.WEEK 16 FANTASY: Sleepers | Busts |Start 'em, sit 'emNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the weekPittsburgh Steelers (+110) vs. Indianapolis ColtsFull disclosure: Pittsburgh has been abysmal lately, losing three consecutive games culminating in a 27-17 Monday Night Football shocker by the aforementioned Bengals. The Steelers haven'tscored 20 points in a game since Nov. 22and haveinched theirway to the top of the NFL leaderboard in dropped passes (27 total, alongside Dallas). But something tells us Steelers coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready at home against Indy this weekend.Steelers Nation knows this is a must-win for their team -- not just for moralebut also to retain the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Tomlin’s squad has dropped each of its past two road contestsand won 10 of its past 12 home games dating back to 2019. So, yes, this game looms large for the Steel City. And, yes, Pittsburgh should be listed as the favorite despite its recent struggles.The Steelers rank second or better in a plethora of defensive categories, and allow the second-fewest passing yards per game (193.3). That’s one mark that hasn’t changed one bit over the course of the past three games, during which they have (incredibly) allowed 193.7 passing yards per game. Contrast that with Indy, which has served as a great defense in its own right but has faltered a bit as of late. The Colts have surrendered an average of 331.7 passing yards over the past three weeks, which ranks last in the NFL.The BetQL Best Bet Model lists Pittsburgh’s +110 moneyline as a four-star bet. The Model also points out a five-star trend: Throughout his Steelers coaching career, Tomlin has gone 39-7 in home games in which the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. This game’s oveunder is smack-dab in the middle of that range, at 44.5. The Steelers crack 20 points for the first time in five games and win by a field goal, 23-20.WEEK 16 NFLDFS: Best stacks| Best values |Lineup BuilderNFL Week 16 Betting Picks: Oveunder pick of the weekCardinals vs. 49ers: OVER 49Our sharp bettor report tells us that around 86 percent of money is on the UNDER in this game, and I can’t imagine why. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finally started cooking again, winning two straight games and posting 59 total points in the process. They even put up 28 points in a losing effort against the stout defense of the Rams three weeks ago.The perception in Vegas and among bettors seems to be that the 49ers have an above-average defense and therefore will swing the game UNDER. But San Francisco has been banged up all season, and the Niners D has spent so much time on the field they have shown obvious fatigue the past few weeks. Robert Saleh’s squad has surrendered an average of 25.1 points per game in 2020and a whopping 32.7 points per game over the past three games (the latter of which is tied for third most in the NFL). The Cardinals, meanwhile, average over 23 points allowed on the season and in the past three weeks. But this becomes a no-brainer when you look at Murray and the Cards’ scoring outputand identify what kind of a game this will likely be. They have scored an average of 27.9 points per game in 2020and 29 points per game over the past three games. The 49ers, meanwhile, have maintained their season-long scoring mean (23.8 points per game), averaging an even 24 points over the past few weeks.With Arizona back to its high-flying offensive ways, and San Francisco putting points on the board with backup QBs(33 points in Dallas last week!), this feels like the under-the-radar oveunder to target this week. I’m personally projecting a 30-24 Arizona win that keeps the Cardinals in the NFC wild card race.Head over to BetQL to see our model’s best bet, sharp data and much more for this game and every Week 16contest! You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL ! Thanks for reading, and have a happy, healthy, and safe Christmas!
submitted by hokkuvn to NBCSport [link] [comments]

After the Patriots won the coin toss AFC Championship game, live betting odds from Vegas set the Patriots moneyline to -125. That translates to a roughly 55.56% chance of winning

This is in response to the other post saying since 2012 the winner of the coin toss in overtime won the game 50% of the time: https://old.reddit.com/nfl/comments/aic4gt/since_the_overtime_rule_change_in_2012_the_team/
I think a better title for that post would have been to say the loser of the coin toss only won the game 44.1% of the time (since 5.9% of the times the game resulted in a tie). I think that paints a less misleading picture of things. To all those arguing that the chiefs defense should have just stepped up, that completely lets the Patriots D off the hook. They gave up 31 points in the second half and 24 points in the 4th quarter alone. I'm sure if the Chiefs won the coin toss, I would guess live betting odds for the KC moneyline would have been set to something like -125 as well. Given that the chiefs were the home team and because the Patriots defense wasn't stopping them at all, that might even be a conservative estimate and the odds might even have been -130 or higher. In my opinion this rationalization of the overtime rules is mostly just people succumbing to the cognitive bias of the just world hypothesis. If you think that these numbers are still insignificant, then fine that's your opinion. I just wanted to make another post that I feel painted a clearer picture than the original post for people who only read titles and headlines for really long posts.
submitted by NoNotableTable to nfl [link] [comments]

NFL: Week 1 Results! (a great start to the season, with a 59% ROI today)

Hi everyone,
We had a pretty good week one with our 4 underdog picks.
2 of our 4 dogs won, and one game (DET vs ARI) ended in a tie (for a push), so we’re looking at a very nice return on investment on the day of 59.33% (0.30 units invested and 0.48 units won.)
Our results post (with a pretty table of what happened this week) is here:
https://topdogs.substack.com/p/nfl-week-1-results
Week 1 results:
I’ll be sending out Week 2 picks later this week (but definitely before Thursday’s TB vs CAR game, especially if that’s one of the games we’ll be betting on).
About this NFL system:
This system takes the underdogs on 4 games that have widely available lines across sportsbooks. There are elements of progression in this one, so I'm recommending a standard 100-unit bankroll and we`ll be starting with 0.10 unit bets (what your unit is is up to you).
Subscribe to the daily Top Dogs email and get your first month free (if you haven’t already). NFL picks are 100% FREE to both free and premium subscribers. Premium subscribers get MLB, NBA and NHL picks as well.
Your first month is free to try it out. If you haven’t made a profit in the first month, it’s easy to unsubscribe.
submitted by topdogpicks to sportsbettingsystems [link] [comments]

Vegas Knows Best: A Comparison of Prediction Methods for the 2017 NFL Season [OC]

Vegas Knows Best: A Comparison of Prediction Methods for the 2017 NFL Season

Hi nfl! When I first got into football a few years ago, I liked to read weekly game predictions, to get a taste of each matchup and plan which game(s) to watch. I became an avid reader of Elliot Harrison's prediction articles, as these teased the key storylines for the weekend.
His predictions are fun, but I couldn't help but suspect that his picks are terrible, and even an idiot like me could do better. I did some research to find out just how easy it is to become an NFL pick guru by comparing 4 prediction methods against the 2017 NFL season.

Methodology

I used Pro Football Reference to get game scores (including playoffs) for the 2017 NFL season. I then collected Elliot Harrison's picks from his weekly articles (search Elliot Harrison week X picks site:nfl.com), FiveThirtyEight's 2017 predictions, and the Vegas favorite for each game (also available on PFREF), and created a giant spreadsheet (link below) to compare each method to a simple one of my own concoction. Here's an overview of how each method works:

Prediction methods

  1. Elliot Harrison -- Elliot does 3 minutes of research and then picks the team he likes more (as far as I can tell)
  2. "You are what your record is" -- My simple, brain-dead method for predicting winners: the winner is the team with the better record entering the game. If both teams are tied, use the previous years record(s) until the tie is broken. Example: In Week 6, the Falcons (3-1) played the Dolphins (2-2), so I would predict the Falcons as the winners. Also that week, the Eagles played the Panthers and were both 4-1, but because the Eagles won 7 games in 2016 to Carolina's 6, I would pick the Eagles.
  3. 538's NFL predictions -- These are based on ELO, a sort of weighted-average of a team's previous game results. Notably, these predictions take into account home-field advantage (more on that later).
  4. Vegas betting lines -- take whoever is favored in the moneyline. For "pick'em" games, choose the home team.

Results

All of my data and the results can be found in this spreadsheet.

Pick Accuracy

I first looked at pick accuracy for the season, and then broke down splits for each (roughly) quarter of the season, to see if any methods were more accurate during a particular portion of the season. I also broke down how well each method predicted Home and Road winners.
PNG version
Elliot Harrison Team Record 538 ELO Vegas # of Games
Pick %, season 0.640 0.633 0.652 0.685 267
Pick %, Weeks 1-4 0.603 0.603 0.651 0.603 63
Pick %, Weeks 5-8 0.589 0.625 0.607 0.660 56
Pick %, Weeks 9-13 0.671 0.671 0.658 0.753 73
Pick %, Weeks 14-17 0.719 0.640 0.671 0.750 64
Pick %, Postseason 0.455 0.545 0.727 0.455 11
Pick %, Home Winners 0.677 0.658 0.796 0.750 152
Pick %, Postseason 0.596 0.605 0.465 0.605 114
No surprise here, Vegas turns out to be the best at picking straight-up winners! Over the course of the season, Vegas correctly picked 183 games, 12 more than Elliot got right, and 14 more than my brain-dead method. Some other observations:
I also wanted to see if any methods are biased toward particular teams. To do that I looked at each teams record based on the analyst/algorithm' prediction, and compared to their actual 2017 Win total.

Predicted vs Actual Wins

Here is the full table of predicted win totals.
Here is same table, but each entry is the number of wins predicted minus the team's end of regular season total.
A negative number mean's the prediction under-estimated the number of wins a team would get. For example, Vegas predicted the cardinals to win 5 of their 16 games, but the Cardinals won 8, for an "overachievement" score of (-3). Large negative numbers mean a team consistently over-achieved.

Most OveUnderrated Teams

Elliot Harrison Team Record 538 ELO Vegas
Most Overrated DAL, GB (+4) KC (+5) KC (+5) ATL, DEN (+4)
Most Underrated 6 teams (-2) SF (-6) SF (-6) SF (-4)

Conclusion

Turns out Vegas really does know what it's doing. Beating their predictions is hard, even with algorithms like ELO, but beating analysts at NFL Network is easy! For next season I'm thinking of coming up with some more sophisticated prediction methods, and seeing how they fare against each other.
submitted by EstevezEstevez to nfl [link] [comments]

Need help with my first soccer bet for USA vs Paraguay tomorrow. 11/6/16

I undestand spreads and moneyline as I bet on NBA and NFL games. However soccefootball betting is another beast. What i dont get in soccer betting is when team A and team B are a PK and the final result ends in a tie does my intial bet get refunded? Also if i pick Moneyline for team A and the final score is a draw i lose that bet correct unless i bet moneyline Draw . Lastly if I bet draw no bet on team A a win yields me money however a draw results in my bet getting returned. Thanks for all the help and copa america and the euros are already kicking arse
submitted by gcool7 to SoccerBetting [link] [comments]

NFL Survivor Contest Week 9

EDIT: Great job Survivors! Week 10 is now up!
We were almost in for a 2nd perfect week until the Cowboys lost in overtime! Let's keep up discussions on survivor pools and picks. Anyone else can feel free to chime in on this thread with their thoughts.
1 player fell to Week 8! Goodbye morovits! Can't really blame you for taking the highest moneyline of the week!
3 of 147 (2.04%) Survivors remain!
3.09% of survivors remain not counting the 50 players killed by not making a pick. (97 active players)
One pick a week, can't reuse a team. One loss and you're out. A tie ending will cause an elimination as well.
Deadline is simply submit your pick before your game starts. If you make a pick and change your mind before that game starts, you are allowed to make changes.
Normally I would split the prize pool in the event that everyone left dies on the same week. However, we're just going to keep it going until we can name one sole survivor.
If you didn't start on Week 1 or you're Dead, well your pick won't be recorded and you can't win (not that there is a prize). Feel free to post your pick here in the comments though.
The lines below are from Tuesday, so some will have moved significantly by Sunday.
Day Time Visitor Home Visitor ML Home ML
Thursday 8:25PM NEW ORLEANS SAINTS CAROLINA PANTHERS -140 +120
Sunday 1:00PM TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS CLEVELAND BROWNS +240 -280
Sunday 1:00PM NEW YORK JETS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +400 -500
Sunday 1:00PM SAN DIEGO CHARGERS MIAMI DOLPHINS +105 -125
Sunday 1:00PM ARIZONA CARDINALS DALLAS COWBOYS +135 -145
Sunday 1:00PM WASHINGTON REDSKINS MINNESOTA VIKINGS -155 +135
Sunday 1:00PM JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS CINCINNATI BENGALS +475 -650
Sunday 1:00PM PHILADELPHIA EAGLES HOUSTON TEXANS -130 +110
Sunday 4:05PM ST. LOUIS RAMS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +400 -600
Sunday 4:05PM DENVER BRONCOS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -165 +145
Sunday 4:25PM OAKLAND RAIDERS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +1000 -1550
Sunday 8:30PM BALTIMORE RAVENS PITTSBURGH STEELERS -110 -110
Monday 8:30PM INDIANAPOLIS COLTS NEW YORK GIANTS -175 +150
Survivor Week 1 Pick Week 2 Pick Week 3 Pick Week 4 Pick Week 5 Pick Week 6 Pick Week 7 Pick Week 8 Pick Week 9 Pick Week 9 Survived
brightfalls Eagles Cardinals Colts Chargers Steelers Broncos Cowboys Dolphins Seahawks Y
rtoandbuddy Seahawks Texans Patriots Chargers Packers Broncos Cardinals Chiefs Bengals Y
PSYCHOCPA Steelers Broncos Bengals Chargers Browns Packers Patriots Lions Chiefs Y
Dead Week 1 Pick Week 2 Pick Week 3 Pick Week 4 Pick Week 5 Pick Week 6 Pick Week 7 Pick Week 8 Pick
morovits Jets Packers Patriots Chargers Seahawks 49ers Cardinals Cowboys
give__no__fucks Steelers Broncos Patriots Colts Saints Chargers Seahawks X
sholter Eagles Texans Saints Chargers Steelers Titans Seahawks X
WinchestersFinest Lions Packers Patriots Chargers Eagles Broncos Seahawks X
agorm429 Jets Cardinals Patriots Chargers Cowboys Broncos Seahawks X
TerpWork Eagles Broncos Colts Chargers Packers 49ers Seahawks X
Puturnameonit 49ers Broncos Patriots Chargers Packers Titans Browns X
FNSM Eagles Broncos Patriots Chargers Saints Seahawks X X
sotally Eagles Packers Falcons Chargers Saints Seahawks X X
thedarkside1 Steelers Packers Patriots Chargers Saints Seahawks X X
the-ron Eagles Packers Saints Colts 49ers Seahawks X X
duckterrorist Eagles Broncos Patriots Chargers Saints Seahawks X X
sethsethsethseth Eagles Broncos Patriots Chargers Saints Seahawks X X
The_Jan Steelers Packers Patriots Chargers Saints Bengals X X
Hobiekern Lions Packers Saints Chargers Steelers Bengals X X
thatguychris_ Jets Broncos Patriots Colts Packers Bengals X X
I_Hold_Up_Buses Eagles Broncos Patriots Chargers Steelers Bengals X X
ddeng004 Lions Packers Saints Chargers Eagles Falcons X X
JudBrolUND Jets Cardinals Colts Chargers Bengals X X X
dmaceee Steelers Packers Falcons Chargers Lions X X X
Electricute Eagles Redskins Patriots Colts Lions X X X
feen_for_bets Eagles Packers Patriots Chargers Blanks X X X
Denvermax432 Jets Broncos Falcons Lions Blanks X X X
JohnnyLugnuts Lions Redskins Bengals Ravens Blanks X X X
SummoningSickness Jets Broncos Colts Steelers X X X X
mikeybats Eagles Packers Patriots Steelers X X X X
matdwyer Lions Broncos Colts Steelers X X X X
booze87 Jets Cardinals Falcons Steelers X X X X
CanadianGladiator Eagles Packers Bears Patriots X X X X
ebflex Vikings Broncos Colts Patriots X X X X
get_a_job_grouch Vikings Redskins Colts Saints X X X X
shaolinmonk777 Vikings Texans Eagles Falcons X X X X
bstnsports Eagles Patriots Colts Jaguars X X X X
bgunner Eagles Packers Patriots Blanks X X X X
LeonBlack1 Eagles Packers Saints Blanks X X X X
remision Eagles Packers Blanks X X X X X
mackey_ Jets Packers Blanks X X X X X
BarrelProofPack Eagles Broncos Blanks X X X X X
Fatwes Eagles Patriots Blanks X X X X X
osskjc Panthers Buccaneers X X X X X X
ross0927 Jets Buccaneers X X X X X X
sleeper33 Vikings Buccaneers X X X X X X
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Betting and spread analysis: Rays vs Indians + Bills vs Browns

Rays vs Indians
Alex Cobb (11-3) (RHP) vs Danny Salazar (2-3) (RHP)
Last 10 games:
Last 3 starts:
Runline:
Moneyline (Straight bet):
o/u: 7
Given these numbers, I feel the safe bet to take is the straight bet. The payouts are very similar, and sometimes its best to go on your gut. Trying to guess the winner of a one game playoff is damn near impossible. However, consider that TB has won 4 out of the 6 meetings against Cleveland this year by an average margin of 6.25 runs.
I feel the most interesting bet is the o/u. The Rays average 4.9 runs per game and Cleveland averages 5.7. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games, and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland. You also have two pitchers making their first playoff starts ever. Things can unravel really quickly and the runs can pile up. If I were to bet on the o/u, I am taking the over.
Baseball, in my opinion, is one of the hardest sports to bet on when it comes to runlines, especially when two teams with poised pitching are facing each other. I expect this one to be close all the way through, so I would take CLE and the +1.5.
Bills (2-2) vs Browns (2-2)
Line:
Moneyline (straight bet):
o/u: 40.5
Last two games:
Boy, has Cleveland been on fire these past two weeks. Hoyer "The destroyer", who started his first game two weeks ago over the injured Weeden, seems to have the Browns on the turnaround. They are currently tied for first place in the AFC North. He is averaging just under 300 YPG. On the other side, you have EJ Manuel who has shown flashes of brilliance and flashes of mediocrity. Buffalo is dependent on their run game to succeed. If Spiller and Jackson can get going, Buffalo would love to control the clock.
Now even though Cleveland seems revitalized, I do not feel comfortable taking them with the (-4). I feel they could easily lost this game and revert back to their familiar ways. The bills now have 120 minutes worth of film on Hoyer, so he won't be as much of a surprise anymore. I do not feel the point spread is the bet to take.
I also do not feel comfortable taking the o/u. I think I am forgoing all o/u bets this season. The league is undergoing a great change in terms of PPG. Almost every NFL game has an o/u of 40-45 points. That is just absurd. How can one possibly predict that?
The straight bet is also discouraging to me. This game is truly unpredictable. I would not wager one single dollar on this game.
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DISCUSSION 10-2-13: Rays vs Indians + Bills vs Browns

Rays vs Indians
Alex Cobb (11-3) (RHP) vs Danny Salazar (2-3) (RHP)
Last 10 games:
Last 3 starts:
Runline:
Moneyline (Straight bet):
o/u: 7
Given these numbers, I feel the safe bet to take is the straight bet. The payouts are very similar, and sometimes its best to go on your gut. Trying to guess the winner of a one game playoff is damn near impossible. However, consider that TB has won 4 out of the 6 meetings against Cleveland this year by an average margin of 6.25 runs.
I feel the most interesting bet is the o/u. The Rays average 4.9 runs per game and Cleveland averages 5.7. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games, and the total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland. You also have two pitchers making their first playoff starts ever. Things can unravel really quickly and the runs can pile up. If I were to bet on the o/u, I am taking the over.
Baseball, in my opinion, is one of the hardest sports to bet on when it comes to runlines, especially when two teams with poised pitching are facing each other. I expect this one to be close all the way through, so I would take CLE and the +1.5.
Bills (2-2) vs Browns (2-2)
Line:
Moneyline (straight bet):
o/u: 40.5
Last two games:
Boy, has Cleveland been on fire these past two weeks. Hoyer "The destroyer", who started his first game two weeks ago over the injured Weeden, seems to have the Browns on the turnaround. They are currently tied for first place in the AFC North. He is averaging just under 300 YPG. On the other side, you have EJ Manuel who has shown flashes of brilliance and flashes of mediocrity. Buffalo is dependent on their run game to succeed. If Spiller and Jackson can get going, Buffalo would love to control the clock.
Now even though Cleveland seems revitalized, I do not feel comfortable taking them with the (-4). I feel they could easily lost this game and revert back to their familiar ways. The bills now have 120 minutes worth of film on Hoyer, so he won't be as much of a surprise anymore. I do not feel the point spread is the bet to take.
I also do not feel comfortable taking the o/u. I think I am forgoing all o/u bets this season. The league is undergoing a great change in terms of PPG. Almost every NFL game has an o/u of 40-45 points. That is just absurd. How can one possibly predict that?
The straight bet is also discouraging to me. This game is truly unpredictable. I would not wager one single dollar on this game.
submitted by newtothelyte to SportsBets [link] [comments]

moneyline bet nfl tie video

Tons and tons of people across the world place moneyline wagers on every single NFL game, every single week – both regular season and playoffs. A moneyline bet is simply a wager placed on one team or the other to win the game. To explain further, let’s take an in-depth look at a typical moneyline bet. Whereas a typical moneyline bet involves a bet on one of two options, three-way moneyline betting involves three options. When wagering on a three-way moneyline, you can bet either Team A to win, Team B to win, or for the event to end in a tie (sometimes referred to as a ‘draw’). Most NFL totals are between 40-57. A low total would be two very good defensive teams or perhaps a game in inclement weather. An indoor game between two excellent offenses would have a high total. Both the under and over bets on a total are attached a moneyline, usually both the same -110 price. So, you bet $110 to win $100 on either side. If we wager $200 on the -200 Ravens, we’re risking $200 to win $300. Since we can’t push, (except in the rare case of an NFL tie – which would be graded as no action) there are two possible outcomes and we can easily figure out the bookmaker’s vig with simple math. $100/$275 = 36.36 $200/$300 = 66.66 Total: 36.36+66.66 = 103.02 best NFL capper at SBR. ... like ex you take sf at +300 then st louis at +360 then san fran at +200 and you just kept doing this and it ended in a tie ... However free play Moneyline bets lose on ... Since moneyline betting is just picking the winner bets can not push because the game can not end in a tie. NFL moneyline odds typically range from -110, which would be considered a small favorite all the way up to -600, which would be considered a massive favorite. In moneyline betting, the bookie assumes most people are going to wager on the favorite and sets the line on the underdog so as to cover any potential losses on the favorite. Using the Louis-Leonard fight as an example, the bookmaker knows more money is going to be wagered on Louis than Leonard because Leonard's chances of winning are much greater. $100 bet at odds of +110 = potential total return of $210 (the original $100 bet plus a profit of $110). $100 bet at odds of -130 = potential total return of $176.90 (the original $100 stake plus a profit of $76.90). As you can see, a successful bet at positive odds offers the chance for greater returns than successful bets at negative odds. View Week 21 NFL Moneylines from 100+ experts. Find out which team the Expert Consensus would bet for every NFL game. Lets use an NFL example here: New England Patriots -240. Miami Dolphins +220. To bet the New England Patriots to win on the money line, you would need to spend $240 on the bet for a chance to win $100 if the Patriots beat the Dolphins. Your return would be $340 – the original $240 stake (bet) and the $100 bet profit.

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